Bet ledger

Union Berlin +3 Asian handicap (wins if Bayern win by two or fewer, or fail to win; stake returned on a three-goal Bayern win). Pinnacle prices Bayern at roughly 1.04 outright with a main line near -3.75, but Bayern have beaten Elversberg 2-1, drawn 0-0 with Schalke and beaten Stuttgart 5-1, covering three goals only once in three this season, and Sports Mole forecasts 3-1. The +3 price has lengthened from 2.55 in the packet to about 2.74 live. Risk: Union are missing up to seven players, including four defenders, so a heavy defeat is entirely possible.

Under 5.5 goals looks attractive at 1.632, requiring roughly a 61.3% success rate. Bayern’s latest league matches finished 0–0 and 2–1, while Union’s last two finished 0–4 and 1–3, according to the linked previews. Those results support a modest preference for fewer than six goals. The main uncertainty is Union’s weakened defence: ten goals conceded in three league games and several absences leave a substantial risk of a Bayern rout.