Granada CF v Sporting Gijon
Needs about 2.01+ or a stronger model probability.
Football betting research, tracked in public.
A paper-trading project that records model prices, available odds, football news, confidence, rationale, results and closing-line value before any claim is trusted.
Last scan 2026-05-30 08:00. Pipeline degraded. · Run status JSON
Morning Brief
30 May 2026 · The daily scan found 3 strict-scope fixtures and 3 odds-covered fixtures. No price cleared the gate: 15 candidates did not clear the required edge; 12 candidates had non-positive expected value.
Core fixtures checked3
Odds-covered fixtures3
Qualified tips0
Temperamentbruised, stricter, calm
No qualified paper tips today. No price cleared the gate: 15 candidates did not clear the required edge; 12 candidates had non-positive expected value. · Open the full brief
Daily Watchlist
Useful slate intelligence even when there is no official paper tip. These rows are not bets.
Granada CF v Sporting Gijon
Needs about 2.98+ or a stronger model probability.
Real Sociedad II v Cultural Leonesa
Needs about 1.95+ or a stronger model probability.
Why No Tip?
No price cleared the gate: 15 candidates did not clear the required edge; 12 candidates had non-positive expected value.
- did not clear the required edge: 15
- had non-positive expected value: 12
Paper trading only. A rejection is a recorded decision, not a missing update. · Open rejection log
Top 10 Rejected Leans
Ranked by model expected value from the latest scan. These are not tips. They failed at least one public gate, shown in the final column.
| Rank | Match | Market | Selection | Odds | Edge | EV | Why rejected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Granada CF v Sporting GijonSpain Segunda División | over_under_2_5 | Over | 1.93 | 1.4% | 2.6% | edge below threshold |
| 2 | Granada CF v Sporting GijonSpain Segunda División | 1x2 | Home win | 2.57 | 0.1% | 0.3% | edge below threshold |
| 3 | Real Sociedad II v Cultural LeonesaSpain Segunda División | over_under_2_5 | Over | 1.83 | 0.0% | 0.0% | edge below threshold |
| 4 | Granada CF v Sporting GijonSpain Segunda División | 1x2 | Draw | 3.40 | -0.1% | -0.4% | edge below threshold, EV not positive |
| 5 | AD Ceuta FC v AlbaceteSpain Segunda División | over_under_2_5 | Over | 1.80 | -0.4% | -0.7% | edge below threshold, EV not positive |
| 6 | AD Ceuta FC v AlbaceteSpain Segunda División | 1x2 | Draw | 3.40 | -0.4% | -1.4% | edge below threshold, EV not positive |
| 7 | Real Sociedad II v Cultural LeonesaSpain Segunda División | 1x2 | Home win | 2.38 | -0.6% | -1.4% | edge below threshold, EV not positive |
| 8 | AD Ceuta FC v AlbaceteSpain Segunda División | 1x2 | Home win | 2.46 | -0.6% | -1.5% | edge below threshold, EV not positive |
| 9 | Real Sociedad II v Cultural LeonesaSpain Segunda División | 1x2 | Draw | 3.40 | -0.5% | -1.8% | edge below threshold, EV not positive |
| 10 | Real Sociedad II v Cultural LeonesaSpain Segunda División | 1x2 | Away win | 3.24 | -1.1% | -3.7% | edge below threshold, EV not positive |
Recent Settled Archive
No current paper tips are live today. These are older settled paper trades kept for the public record, not fresh signals.
Tottenham v Leeds
Home DNB at 1.48. Post-review Spurs-side counter-signal. The straight 1X2 model overreacted to Tottenham injuries, but Spurs are in a relegation survival spot and Leeds are not under the same pressure. The cleaner expression is Tottenham draw-no-bet / Asian handicap 0 rather than Tottenham outright. Paper trading only; this does not cancel the existing Leeds away-win paper tip. Settled 1-1: draw-no-bet pushed, so no profit or loss.
Spartak Moscow v Rubin
Draw at 4.28. Spartak Moscow v Rubin: Draw flagged by the regular-football market-consensus scan. Best available API-Football snapshot price was 4.28 at 1xBet; consensus fair probability was 27.9%. Paper trading only. Post-publication note: kept in the public record. This came from the first experimental regular-football memory scan; league scope and away-win guards were tightened after review. Settled 2-1: lost for -10.00u.
Nizhny Novgorod v CSKA Moscow
Draw at 3.50. Nizhny Novgorod v CSKA Moscow: Draw flagged by the regular-football market-consensus scan. Best available API-Football snapshot price was 3.50 at 1xBet; consensus fair probability was 32.9%. Paper trading only. Post-publication note: kept in the public record. This came from the first experimental regular-football memory scan; league scope and away-win guards were tightened after review. Settled 1-2: lost for -10.00u.
Dynamo v FC Krasnodar
Draw at 4.32. Dynamo v FC Krasnodar: Draw flagged by the regular-football market-consensus scan. Best available API-Football snapshot price was 4.32 at 1xBet; consensus fair probability was 27.6%. Paper trading only. Post-publication note: kept in the public record. This came from the first experimental regular-football memory scan; league scope and away-win guards were tightened after review. Settled 2-1: lost for -10.00u.
Latest News Signals
Team-news and football RSS items matched to watched games.
Davies in 'best ever' Canada squad for World Cup
Head coach Jesse Marsch includes Bayern Munich defender Alphonso Davies in what he describes as the best Canada squad "ever assembled" for this summer's World Cup.
What now for Vinicius Jr after Mourinho signs Real Madrid deal?
How Jose Mourinho manages his relationship with Brazil forward Vinicius Junior will be one of the most closely watched aspects of his second spell in charge of Real Madrid.
Volpato makes Italy to Australia switch before World Cup
Former Italy under-21 international Cristian Volpato switches allegiance to Australia days before the Socceroos announce their squad for the 2026 Fifa World Cup.
Team Memory
Classified signals carried forward into future match review.
Canada
Davies in 'best ever' Canada squad for World Cup
Brazil
What now for Vinicius Jr after Mourinho signs Real Madrid deal?
Australia
Volpato makes Italy to Australia switch before World Cup