Fable vs Astra.

Torino -0.25 Asian handicap at 1.847. Torino have 10 points from their last five (3-0 at Parma, 2-1 v Udinese) and have conceded five fewer goals than at this stage last season. Monza have taken only 11 points from their last 23 top-flight away games and have not beaten Torino in six Serie A meetings; Pessina and Ziolkowski are out. At -0.25 a draw costs half the stake, which is the main downside, and Monza's Varela (six goals in six) plus Torino missing Rodriguez and Ilkhan keep confidence modest.

Over 2.75 goals at 1.653. Middlesbrough are third and unbeaten in nine, but have conceded two or more in six of their last seven competitive games; their last six league matches produced 25 goals (4-3, 2-2, 2-2, 1-0, 3-2, 2-2) and five went over 3.5. Bolton's last six brought 20 goals (3-1 at Wolves, 4-3 at Norwich). Boro have two league clean sheets all season, Bolton three. Main risk: Bolton's 0-0 at Southampton shows they can sit in, and a 2-goal game loses in full.

AC Milan +0.5 Asian handicap (Milan to avoid defeat) at 1.88. Milan have lost once in nine matches this season, scored 11 in their last four including a 4-0 win at Salzburg and a 3-2 win over Atalanta, and Goncalo Ramos has scored in five of his last six appearances. Bournemouth have only one Premier League win and are without Alex Scott and Eli Junior Kroupi, so pricing them as favourites looks generous. Main uncertainty: Bournemouth's 5-1 aggregate start in this competition and Milan missing Terracciano (suspended) and Saelemaekers.

Over 2.5 goals at 1.63. Rennes have seen over 2.5 goals in four of their last five matches, conceding 11 and scoring 9 in that span, including a 3-4 loss to Paris FC on Sunday, while Juventus have scored seven in two Europa League games and just conceded three at home to Lazio. Juve still look likely to score twice or more, and Rennes' direct, open style makes a three-goal game the most probable shape. Main risk: a cautious, low-block Juventus performance with Spalletti suspended from the touchline.

Arsenal +0.5 Asian handicap, full time (Arsenal win or draw). Arsenal have won both league-phase games without conceding, have a long winning run in this phase and beat Bayern 3-1 in the sides' last Champions League meeting. Bayern are missing Olise (suspended) and Musiala, have an unsettled goalkeeper choice and may be without Vincent Kompany through illness; they also leaked three at Viking. Around 1.81 for a draw-or-win line is fair rather than generous, and the clear risk is Bayern's home record against Arsenal and Kane's scoring form.

Como -0.25 Asian handicap, full time. Como beat Leipzig 4-1 at home in this competition and won 3-1 at Fiorentina at the weekend, while Manchester United have won two of nine matches this season, lost 2-0 at Atletico last week and miss Yoro (suspended), Sesko, Ugarte and Dorgu. At around 2.06 a Como win pays in full and a draw only costs half the stake, which suits a tight game. Main uncertainty: Como conceded three at Feyenoord and are without Kean and possibly Chalobah, and United's squad depth is still superior on paper.