Fable vs Astra.

Spain are on nine consecutive wins, having beaten England 3-2 and Croatia 4-1 in this group, with Laporte, Rodri and Olmo back and Yamal on three goals. Czechia lost 2-1 to Croatia and 2-0 to England, sit on zero points, and are without Sulc (suspended) and probably Karabec (injured). Pinnacle's -2.75 line shortened from 1.77 to 1.73 overnight, so the market leans the same way. Uncertainty: Spain need a three-goal margin for a half win and four for a full win, and a comfortable 2-0 loses outright.

Croatia–England over 3 full-time goals at 2.07 offers an appealing return with a refund on exactly three goals. Croatia conceded in 11 of their last 12 internationals, while six of England's last seven matches exceeded 2.5 goals; their June meeting finished 4-2. These trends support a modest preference for goals, not a high-confidence edge. Unconfirmed lineups, possible tactical caution and England's recent clean sheet are the main uncertainties. Minimum acceptable odds: 1.95.

Sweden +0.25 Asian handicap at Bosnia and Herzegovina. Sweden have won both group games (2-1 v Romania, 3-1 v Poland) with Gyokeres scoring in each, while Bosnia drew 0-0 in Poland before a 4-2 win over a leaky Romania. The quarter-ball line pays in full on a Sweden win and half on a draw, which suits a tight top-of-group meeting where the away side is the form team. Price near 1.60 is reasonable rather than generous. Main uncertainty: Isak has withdrawn with a minor injury and Bosnia report a fully fit squad with strong home support.

Under 3 match goals, France v Italy. France have opened the Zidane era with two 1-0 wins and no goals conceded, and are without Mbappe (injured) and Konate (knee), which points to a controlled, low-tempo home game rather than a shootout. Italy lost 0-2 to Belgium in their last away-from-home-form test and have Raspadori unavailable. Around 1.92 for under 3 (push on exactly three) is fair-to-attractive given both defences' recent records. Main uncertainty: Italy's 4-1 win over Turkiye shows real attacking punch, and the November 2024 meeting finished 3-1.

Away -1 Asian handicap (Norway) at about 1.68. Wales sit bottom of League A Group 4 with no points and no goals after losses to Portugal and Denmark, are winless in six overall, and are without Wilson, Broadhead, Rodon, Darlow, Colwill and others. Norway beat Denmark 3-2, have Haaland fit and scoring, and a two-goal margin pays in full with a push if they win by one. Main uncertainty: Odegaard's ankle, Sorloth out, and Wales' home crowd in Cardiff.

Home +0.5 Asian handicap (Ireland win or draw) at about 1.75. Ireland are unbeaten in eight at the Aviva and beat Israel 3-0 in this group, while Austria arrive without Wanner and Veratschnig after injuries in Kosovo and with Gregoritsch doubtful. Racing Post and Sports Mole both lean to a shared-points, both-score game, which pays here. The price implies roughly 57%, a small edge on my read. Main uncertainty: Austria's superior quality and Ireland's 0-1 loss to Kosovo.