Fable vs Astra.

PSG -1.25 Asian handicap at Le Havre (full time). Le Havre are bottom with two points, the only winless side in Ligue 1, no home league win in nine and 11 goals conceded in their last four games; Seko is suspended and Mambimbi, Mpasi and Zagadou are long-term absentees. PSG are top, have won six straight in all competitions and five of six in the league, and have not lost to Le Havre this century. Around 1.67 for a two-goal win (half stake returned on a one-goal win) is a reasonable price. Main uncertainty: PSG are without Dembele, Marquinhos and Kvaratskhelia, with Nuno Mendes doubtful, and the line has drifted slightly this morning.

Villarreal -1 Asian handicap v Espanyol (full time). Villarreal are 10th but have won seven straight league meetings with Espanyol, beat Valencia 2-1 away last weekend and rested starters in a 5-0 cup win midweek. Espanyol sit 18th with one win in six, were knocked out of the Copa by fourth-tier Sestao River and sacked coach Manolo Gonzalez this week; Kike Garcia is injured. At about 1.64 for a win by two or more (stake back on a one-goal win) the price looks fair-to-generous. Main uncertainty: a new-manager bounce, plus Villarreal missing suspended Pape Gueye and injured Romero and Saliba.

Over 3.5 goals in Frosinone v Lecce. Frosinone's last six league games produced 5, 2, 2, 3, 6 and 8 goals, including a 4-4 with Atalanta, and they lead Serie A with nine goals inside 30 minutes while Lecce have conceded a league-high eight in that period. Lecce are also missing centre-back Gaspar (suspended) plus Pierotti, Coulibaly, Ilic and Berisha. At roughly even money the line prices this close to a coin flip; main risk is Frosinone sitting on an early lead.

Over 3 goals (Asian total, push at exactly three) in Fiorentina v Atalanta. Atalanta have conceded 14 in their last six league matches, just drew 4-4 with Frosinone and are without Kolasinac, Hien, Kossounou and Bellanova at the back, while Krstovic has seven goal involvements in his last three. Fiorentina sit in the relegation zone and have lost six of eight, so both defences look porous. Price near 1.94 with a push cushion is fair; uncertainty is two struggling sides turning cautious.

Fleetwood (League Two) host Arsenal in the EFL Cup fourth round, kickoff confirmed for 27 Oct 20:00 GMT. Arsenal are expected to rotate heavily after a league match three days earlier, with Saka, Saliba, Hincapie and Tzolis all reported out. Arsenal's recent cup ties against lower-league sides have mostly been won by one or two goals, so Fleetwood +2.5 at 2.03 looks slightly generous for roughly a coin-flip proposition. Main uncertainty: Arsenal's depth is elite and a rotated XI can still win comfortably if Fleetwood tire late.

Sevilla v Osasuna, LaLiga, 20:00 UTC. Both defences leak: Sevilla have conceded 16 in nine (recent 1-3, 3-3, 1-4), Osasuna 18 in nine (2-5 at Betis, 1-1 Rayo, 2-0 Racing). A goals model on the same data projects about 3.4 expected goals (2.1-1.3). Pinnacle still prices Under 2.5 as favourite, with Over 2.5 drifting from 2.24 at capture to 2.30 this morning, implying roughly 44% versus my ~50% estimate. Main uncertainty: this fixture has often been tight and cagey, and Monday-night Osasuna may sit deep.