AC Milan v Cagliari
Needs a named team-news catalyst before a long draw or away win is publishable.
Football betting research, tracked in public.
A paper-trading project that records model prices, available odds, football news, confidence, rationale, results and closing-line value before any claim is trusted.
Last scan 2026-05-24 08:00. Pipeline degraded. · Run status JSON
Morning Brief
24 May 2026 · The daily scan found 33 strict-scope fixtures and 20 odds-covered fixtures. No price cleared the gate: 100 candidates did not clear the required edge; 63 candidates had non-positive expected value; 26 candidates needed a named catalyst for a long draw or away win.
Core fixtures checked33
Odds-covered fixtures20
Qualified tips0
Temperamentbruised, stricter, calm
No qualified paper tips today. No price cleared the gate: 100 candidates did not clear the required edge; 63 candidates had non-positive expected value; 26 candidates needed a named catalyst for a long draw or away win. · Open the full brief
Daily Watchlist
Useful slate intelligence even when there is no official paper tip. These rows are not bets.
Hellas Verona v AS Roma
Needs about 50.03+ or a stronger model probability.
Las Palmas v Zaragoza
Needs a named team-news catalyst before a long draw or away win is publishable.
Why No Tip?
No price cleared the gate: 100 candidates did not clear the required edge; 63 candidates had non-positive expected value; 26 candidates needed a named catalyst for a long draw or away win.
- did not clear the required edge: 100
- had non-positive expected value: 63
- needed a named catalyst for a long draw or away win: 26
- failed the market guard: 9
Paper trading only. A rejection is a recorded decision, not a missing update. · Open rejection log
Top 10 Rejected Leans
Ranked by model expected value from the latest scan. These are not tips. They failed at least one public gate, shown in the final column.
| Rank | Match | Market | Selection | Odds | Edge | EV | Why rejected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC Milan v CagliariItaly Serie A | 1x2 | Away win | 14.20 | 1.4% | 19.5% | edge below threshold, long 1X2 needs named catalyst, market guard failed |
| 2 | Hellas Verona v AS RomaItaly Serie A | 1x2 | Home win | 11.50 | 0.8% | 9.2% | edge below threshold |
| 3 | Las Palmas v ZaragozaSpain Segunda División | 1x2 | Away win | 9.00 | 0.8% | 7.3% | edge below threshold, long 1X2 needs named catalyst, market guard failed |
| 4 | AC Milan v CagliariItaly Serie A | 1x2 | Draw | 6.00 | 1.1% | 6.8% | edge below threshold, long 1X2 needs named catalyst |
| 5 | Napoli v UdineseItaly Serie A | over_under_2_5 | Over | 1.97 | 2.8% | 5.5% | edge below threshold |
| 6 | Villarreal v Atletico MadridSpain La Liga | over_under_2_5 | Under | 2.70 | 2.0% | 5.3% | edge below threshold |
| 7 | Brighton v Manchester UnitedEngland Premier League | over_under_2_5 | Under | 2.75 | 1.7% | 4.7% | edge below threshold |
| 8 | Manchester City v Aston VillaEngland Premier League | over_under_2_5 | Under | 3.75 | 1.1% | 4.2% | edge below threshold |
| 9 | Liverpool v BrentfordEngland Premier League | over_under_2_5 | Under | 2.75 | 1.5% | 4.1% | edge below threshold |
| 10 | Torino v JuventusItaly Serie A | 1x2 | Draw | 4.78 | 0.8% | 4.0% | edge below threshold, long 1X2 needs named catalyst |
Recent Settled Archive
No current paper tips are live today. These are older settled paper trades kept for the public record, not fresh signals.
Tottenham v Leeds
Home DNB at 1.48. Post-review Spurs-side counter-signal. The straight 1X2 model overreacted to Tottenham injuries, but Spurs are in a relegation survival spot and Leeds are not under the same pressure. The cleaner expression is Tottenham draw-no-bet / Asian handicap 0 rather than Tottenham outright. Paper trading only; this does not cancel the existing Leeds away-win paper tip. Settled 1-1: draw-no-bet pushed, so no profit or loss.
Spartak Moscow v Rubin
Draw at 4.28. Spartak Moscow v Rubin: Draw flagged by the regular-football market-consensus scan. Best available API-Football snapshot price was 4.28 at 1xBet; consensus fair probability was 27.9%. Paper trading only. Post-publication note: kept in the public record. This came from the first experimental regular-football memory scan; league scope and away-win guards were tightened after review. Settled 2-1: lost for -10.00u.
Nizhny Novgorod v CSKA Moscow
Draw at 3.50. Nizhny Novgorod v CSKA Moscow: Draw flagged by the regular-football market-consensus scan. Best available API-Football snapshot price was 3.50 at 1xBet; consensus fair probability was 32.9%. Paper trading only. Post-publication note: kept in the public record. This came from the first experimental regular-football memory scan; league scope and away-win guards were tightened after review. Settled 1-2: lost for -10.00u.
Dynamo v FC Krasnodar
Draw at 4.32. Dynamo v FC Krasnodar: Draw flagged by the regular-football market-consensus scan. Best available API-Football snapshot price was 4.32 at 1xBet; consensus fair probability was 27.6%. Paper trading only. Post-publication note: kept in the public record. This came from the first experimental regular-football memory scan; league scope and away-win guards were tightened after review. Settled 2-1: lost for -10.00u.
Latest News Signals
Team-news and football RSS items matched to watched games.
Brentford: R. Henry Missing Fixture - Muscle Injury
Brentford list R. Henry as missing fixture for Liverpool v Brentford: Muscle Injury.
Liverpool: A. Isak Questionable - Injury
Liverpool list A. Isak as questionable for Liverpool v Brentford: Injury.
Fulham: J. Andersen Missing Fixture - Red Card
Fulham list J. Andersen as missing fixture for Fulham v Newcastle: Red Card.
Team Memory
Classified signals carried forward into future match review.
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace: C. Doucoure Missing Fixture - Knee Injury
Brighton
Brighton: S. Tzimas Missing Fixture - Knee Injury
Arsenal
Arsenal: J. Timber Missing Fixture - Ankle Injury