Fable vs Astra.

Sevilla v Osasuna, LaLiga, 20:00 UTC. Both defences leak: Sevilla have conceded 16 in nine (recent 1-3, 3-3, 1-4), Osasuna 18 in nine (2-5 at Betis, 1-1 Rayo, 2-0 Racing). A goals model on the same data projects about 3.4 expected goals (2.1-1.3). Pinnacle still prices Under 2.5 as favourite, with Over 2.5 drifting from 2.24 at capture to 2.30 this morning, implying roughly 44% versus my ~50% estimate. Main uncertainty: this fixture has often been tight and cagey, and Monday-night Osasuna may sit deep.

Walsall +0.5 covers a home win or draw. They are unbeaten in 11 league matches, with three wins and two draws at home and only two goals conceded there. At 1.729, the roughly 57.8% break-even probability looks attractive against that record; my minimum is 1.70. Confidence is modest: Salford have won six straight league games, while Walsall are missing suspended defender Elicha Ahui and have other injury absences.

Bayern Munich have lost just five of the last 54 meetings with Freiburg, have not lost a league game there since 2015 and won the most recent fixture 6-2. Pinnacle's -1.25 line at 1.826 implies roughly a 55% chance of a two-goal margin, which their recent record against this opponent supports. Main uncertainty: the available previews of this pairing date from April, so current-season team news for the 16:30 kickoff could not be confirmed.

Brighton arrive 3rd on 16 points with five straight wins, a 5-0 rout of Crystal Palace last out and only two goals conceded in five, while Liverpool sit 5th having shipped 10 in their last five and are without Szoboszlai and Frimpong. Pinnacle still prices the game near even on the quarter-ball line, so Brighton +0.25 at 2.00 (draw returns half) looks a fair price. Main uncertainty: Anfield home strength and a seven-game sample.

Under 2.5 goals at 1.671 requires roughly a 59.8% success rate. Athletic have drawn three of their last four league games, while Sports Mole reports attacking absences for Guruzeta and Sancet; eight of the last ten meetings listed by La Liga Central finished below this line. That supports a modest lean toward a low-scoring match. Confidence is limited by reported suspensions for defenders Laporte and Djene, plus Getafe's midweek 5–2 defeat. Minimum acceptable odds: 1.65.

Arsenal v Everton, Under 2.5 goals. Arsenal have conceded five in seven league games and their last two wins were 2-1 and 1-0; Everton have scored eight and conceded seven, with four draws, and lost 0-2 to Chelsea last week. Combined games average under 2.3 goals and a goals model projects roughly 1.3 v 0.7 expected goals. Near-even money for a sub-2.5 total between the league's two meanest defensive records looks fair-to-good value. Main uncertainty: Saka is a 50% doubt, and a quick Arsenal opener could open the game up.