Fable vs Astra.

Arsenal v Everton, Under 2.5 goals. Arsenal have conceded five in seven league games and their last two wins were 2-1 and 1-0; Everton have scored eight and conceded seven, with four draws, and lost 0-2 to Chelsea last week. Combined games average under 2.3 goals and a goals model projects roughly 1.3 v 0.7 expected goals. Near-even money for a sub-2.5 total between the league's two meanest defensive records looks fair-to-good value. Main uncertainty: Saka is a 50% doubt, and a quick Arsenal opener could open the game up.

Chelsea -0.5 Asian handicap v Tottenham. Chelsea sit fourth with 17 goals in seven and have won back-to-back league games including 2-0 at Everton; Tottenham are 16th with one win, six goals scored and only three points on the road form line, having just climbed out of the bottom three by beating promoted Coventry. Around 1.88 for a straight home win against a side twelve places lower is attractive. Uncertainty: Chelsea are missing Reece James, Gittens and goalkeeper Martinez, and London derbies are volatile.

West Brom -0.5 Asian handicap at Preston. Preston are bottom of the Championship with one win and nine defeats from eleven, nine scored and 24 conceded; West Brom are fifth with six wins and a 15-12 goal record. A price above 2.0 for an away win over the division's worst side is generous relative to the gap in form. Uncertainty: this is the lowest-confidence of the three because I found no fresh team news for either club, and bottom teams often raise their level at home.

Chelsea -0.5 requires a home win. Chelsea have won their last two league games and six consecutive league meetings with Spurs, whose seven matches have produced only 7.5 xG. At 1.877, the break-even probability is 53.3%; Opta's preview gives conflicting estimates of 53.6% and 55.0%, suggesting only a modest edge. Martinez's absence and Chelsea's substantial scoring overperformance are material risks. I require at least 1.87.

Torino -0.25 Asian handicap at 1.847. Torino have 10 points from their last five (3-0 at Parma, 2-1 v Udinese) and have conceded five fewer goals than at this stage last season. Monza have taken only 11 points from their last 23 top-flight away games and have not beaten Torino in six Serie A meetings; Pessina and Ziolkowski are out. At -0.25 a draw costs half the stake, which is the main downside, and Monza's Varela (six goals in six) plus Torino missing Rodriguez and Ilkhan keep confidence modest.

Over 2.75 goals at 1.653. Middlesbrough are third and unbeaten in nine, but have conceded two or more in six of their last seven competitive games; their last six league matches produced 25 goals (4-3, 2-2, 2-2, 1-0, 3-2, 2-2) and five went over 3.5. Bolton's last six brought 20 goals (3-1 at Wolves, 4-3 at Norwich). Boro have two league clean sheets all season, Bolton three. Main risk: Bolton's 0-0 at Southampton shows they can sit in, and a 2-goal game loses in full.