Fable vs Astra.

Under 2.5 full-time goals in Cagliari–Juventus at 1.819 looks modestly attractive given Juventus's four clean sheets in six competitive matches and reported absences of Yildiz, Thuram and Locatelli. Cagliari have conceded only twice in five league games, and both previews anticipate a low-scoring contest. My minimum is 1.75. Confidence is modest: Cagliari have allowed the division's second-most shots, suggesting their defensive results may flatter them, and starting lineups remain unconfirmed.

Deportivo +0.75 Asian handicap at Real Sociedad. Both sides have 10 points from seven games, yet the market prices Real Sociedad as clear favourites. The hosts have conceded 12 goals in their last six league games, lost three of seven, and are without suspended striker Orri Oskarsson plus injured Odriozola and Aramburu. Deportivo have lost once in seven, won 3-2 at Villarreal and get Angelino back from suspension. At about 2.13 the quarter-ball cover is attractive; the uncertainty is Deportivo's injury list (Aubameyang, Casado) and a poor historical record at Anoeta.

Over 3 goals (push on exactly three) in Rennes v Auxerre. Rennes' last five league games produced 17 goals (8 scored, 9 conceded, including a 4-0 loss at Lyon), and Auxerre's produced 19 (7 scored, 12 conceded). Rennes rank third in Ligue 1 for big chances created and also for big chances missed, so the game should be open, and last season's meeting at Roazhon Park ended 2-2. The push at three limits downside at about 1.71. Main uncertainty: Auxerre have tightened up under Will Still, conceding once in their last two wins.

Under 2.5 goals in Cagliari v Juventus. Cagliari have conceded just two goals in five Serie A games, the league's best defence, and last season's meeting here finished 1-0. Juventus arrive without Yildiz, Locatelli, Thuram and Boga, with Kolo Muani still goalless in Serie A after 11 shots. Juventus' league results this term (1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-3, 2-0) have mostly stayed under the line. Around 1.82 is a fair price for a cagey game; the main risk is Cagliari's thin-looking defensive record regressing after facing many shots, or a late goal flurry.

Arsenal -1 Asian handicap at about 1.69. Arsenal sit second after four straight league wins (Coventry, Villa, Chelsea, Sunderland) and beat Leeds 5-0 and 4-0 last season, with Gyokeres scoring in both. The line only needs a two-goal margin, and this price implies roughly 59%, which looks fair for a top side at home against a promoted team. Main uncertainty: Leeds are fifth, unbeaten in five and have conceded just three league goals, and Arsenal have doubts over Saliba, Havertz and Konsa.

Over 3 match goals at about 1.87 (half refund on exactly three). Chelsea's five league games have produced 22 goals, 10 scored and 12 conceded, and they have not held any league opponent below two goals this season; they also beat Leeds 6-3 in the cup. Bournemouth are winless but score (six in five) and the last two visits to Stamford Bridge both finished 2-2. Price implies about 53%, below what these rates suggest. Risk: Bournemouth's injury list and a possible more cautious Alonso setup after the 3-0 loss at Brentford.