Fable vs Astra.

Under 2 match goals at about 2.11 for Ukraine v Hungary at the neutral City Arena in Trnava. Hungary's three group games finished 0-1, 0-0 and 1-0, and Ukraine's were 1-0, 0-0 and 0-3, so five of six involved games had at most one goal. Both teams are depleted: Ukraine lack suspended Matviyenko and striker Sikan plus injured Mykolenko, while Hungary miss Kerkez and Volla. A push at exactly two goals cushions the price. Main risk: Ukraine's makeshift defence leaking as it did against Northern Ireland.

Italy -1 Asian handicap at about 1.62 against Turkiye in League A. Turkiye are bottom with zero points after 0-1 to France, 1-4 at home to Italy and 0-3 to Belgium, and now lose Arda Guler and Baris Alper Yilmaz to suspension on top of injured Calhanoglu and Yildiz, stripping most of their creativity. Italy drew 1-1 with France and beat this opponent by three goals last week. A one-goal Italy win refunds the stake. Main uncertainty is Italy's own lack of firepower without Raspadori.

Under 3 goals offers a refund at exactly three and looks attractive at 2.09. France's first three group games finished 1-0, 1-0 and 1-1; Belgium conceded only once across theirs. Reported absences of Mbappe, De Bruyne and Tielemans further support a restrained scoring outlook. The main risks are France's defensive absences, Belgium's recent attacking output and unconfirmed lineups; the short run of low scores is not conclusive.

Greece +1 (full-time Asian handicap). Greece lead Group A2 with 7 points from three games, including a historic 1-0 win over Germany and a 2-1 win over Serbia, and have not lost at home this campaign. Germany, under a new manager and without Musiala and Havertz, have scored only three goals in three Nations League matches. This pick wins unless Germany win by two or more, with a push on a one-goal German win. Pinnacle had drifted from 1.666 to 1.60 by this morning, so the price is fair rather than generous. Risks: Tzolis is doubtful for Greece, and Germany's underlying quality could still produce a comfortable win.

Portugal -0.75 (full-time Asian handicap). Portugal are a perfect 3-0 in Group A4 (1-0 at Wales, 2-1 at Norway, 4-2 at Denmark) and lead by six points, with the manager openly targeting a win to seal qualification. Norway have lost both matches since beating Denmark and are benching goalkeeper Nyland after his error in Oslo. The pick pays in full on a two-goal Portuguese win and half on a one-goal win. Pinnacle still shows 1.775, steady since the packet snapshot. Main uncertainty: Ronaldo's departure from the squad and Norway's strong first hour in the reverse fixture show the visitors can trouble Portugal.

Ireland -0.25 Asian handicap at 1.869 is my strongest modest-confidence choice: they beat Israel 3-0 last week and followed with a 2-2 draw against Austria, while Israel have scored once in three group games. The price offers reasonable compensation for a draw costing half the pick. The main uncertainties are Ireland's defensive absences, possible rotation and the neutral venue in Serbia; this is a small perceived edge, not a high-confidence forecast.