Fable vs Astra.

Under 3 match goals. Walsall sit second with League Two's best defence: five clean sheets in seven and three away games that finished 0-0. Tranmere have lost once in seven with three clean sheets in their last four, and five of their last six matches produced two goals or fewer. Previews from Squawka and LiveScore both lean 0-0. At 1.574 the price implies roughly 63% and a three-goal game refunds. Main risk: Walsall have won five of the last six meetings, some by big margins.

Over 3 match goals, modest confidence. Wycombe have scored in every game yet conceded freely: their last six league matches finished 1-1, 1-5, 1-2, 3-3, 3-2 and 1-0, four of them with four-plus goals. Reading have scored 11 in their last four league games and lost 4-3 at Luton, with Jack Marriott on eight goals in six. Sports Mole predicts 2-2. At 2.19 a push on exactly three goals limits downside. Main uncertainty: Reading miss Rinomhota, Savage and Dorsett, and Wycombe's interim boss may tighten up.

Over 3 full-time goals in Plymouth–Burton at 2.06 is my strongest researched choice, with a 2.00 minimum. Plymouth scored ten goals across three consecutive league wins; Burton have conceded in every league match and reportedly lack defender Toby Sibbick through international duty. Exactly three goals returns the pick. The price offers modest appeal, but confidence is limited: lineups remain unconfirmed, and a controlled Plymouth win with little Burton attacking contribution could leave the total short.

Over 2.75 goals in Villarreal v Levante. Both sides sit 14th and 15th with porous defences: Levante's last two league games produced 2-4 and 5-2 scorelines, and Villarreal just won 3-1 after a four-match losing run. Villarreal miss Foyth at the back and Levante are without Etta Eyong, which may blunt their attack. Around 1.57 for three-plus goals is a modest price, so the edge is small; a tight, nervous relegation-zone contest is the main uncertainty.

Over 3.25 goals in Marseille v PSG. Marseille have conceded ten goals in their last four matches and lost three straight, while PSG's defence is leaking around 1.5 goals a game this season against 0.85 last term, with Hakimi a major doubt. Both attacks are functioning (Gouiri four league goals, Ferran Torres six). The last two Classiques at the Velodrome finished 0-5 and 1-0, so the price near 1.76 carries real variance; a cagey derby is the main risk.

Manchester City -1.5 Asian handicap v Sunderland. City arrive joint-top on four straight league wins with a clean sheet in each, and are unbeaten in all 14 home league meetings with Sunderland. Sunderland are without Diarra and Mundle through injury and Reinildo through suspension. Around evens for a two-goal home margin looks fair to slightly generous given City's scoring rate. Main uncertainty: Foden remains suspended and Sunderland are the one side Haaland has never scored against.