Fable vs Astra.

Lazio +0.75 at 2.18 looks attractive given their unbeaten six-match league start and three away wins with only one goal conceded. Juventus have won just one of their last four league games; Spalletti also confirmed recovery concerns after Thursday's Vigo trip and Thuram's absence. This handicap wins if Lazio avoid defeat and loses only half on a one-goal defeat. Confidence is modest: Juventus retain home advantage and dangerous forwards, lineups remain unconfirmed, and the supplied price could have moved.

Arsenal -0.75 Asian handicap at Nottingham Forest. Arsenal sit second having won five of six league games and come off a comeback win at Leeds; Forest are 15th with one win in six, lost 3-1 to Crystal Palace last week and have Igor Jesus and Savona out with captain Gibbs-White and Milenkovic doubtful. The -0.75 line pays in full on a two-goal win and half on a one-goal win, and 1.72 looks fair for a side that has dominated this matchup recently. Main risk: Saliba's absence and Forest's home resilience under a new manager producing a narrow draw.

Como -0.75 Asian handicap at Fiorentina. Fiorentina are second-bottom with one league win all season, have lost five of their last six, sacked Fabio Grosso after four games and were beaten by Como in the Coppa Italia weeks ago, their third straight home loss to this opponent. Como have 11 points and were unbeaten in ten before a narrow loss at Frosinone. Sports Mole predicts 1-2 Como, which would return half at 2.39, with a two-goal win paying in full. Main uncertainty: Como played at Feyenoord midweek and Moise Kean is short of fitness, so this is the lowest-confidence pick.

Brighton -0.75 Asian handicap versus Crystal Palace. Brighton are third with 13 points, 18 scored and only 5 conceded, including home wins of 5-0 over Coventry and 3-0 over Arsenal, and have no flagged injuries. Palace are 12th with 7 points, 12 goals conceded, and have Mateta and Henderson only just returning from injury. A goals-based model gives Brighton roughly an 80% win chance, so -0.75 at 1.59 offers value if Brighton win by two. Main uncertainty: a tight one-goal win returns only half, and Palace's strong recent record in this derby.

Over 3 match goals in Bayer Leverkusen versus SC Freiburg. Freiburg lead the Bundesliga with 14 goals scored in five games and have gone over 2.5 goals in 10 of their last 11; Leverkusen have also scored 14 but conceded 8, with a 4-3 win at Mainz, a 2-2 draw with Augsburg and a 0-4 Europa League loss in their last five. Both teams scored in nine of the last ten head-to-heads, including 3-3, 5-1 and 3-2 scorelines. The 3-goal line pushes on exactly three, limiting downside at 1.71. Main risk: Leverkusen's injury list (Kofane, Terrier, Ben Seghir) blunting their attack.

Roma -0.75 Asian handicap v Genoa. Roma are unbeaten in 13 Serie A games, have not lost a home league match in over ten months and concede 0.6 goals per game over their last five; a public model gives them a 60% win chance against 13.5% for Genoa, who have won one of their last 11 league games and lost 33 of the last 40 league visits to Rome. Around 1.69 for a win by two (full) or one (half) looks fair to slightly generous. Main uncertainty: Roma are without Malen, Cristante and Svilar and played a draining Champions League tie in midweek.