Fable vs Astra.

Under 7.5 regulation goals, Tavernes v Valencia (Copa del Rey R1, 10 Nov at Mestalla; RFEF rescheduled it on 31 Oct after the 28 Oct suspension). Sixth-tier Tavernes will likely be routed, but 7.5 is a very high median: Valencia scored four in their last five league games (gidstats, to 7 Nov) and Aguirre planned four or five academy starters (El Gol Digital, 28 Oct). Such ties usually end 3-0 to 5-0; eight-plus goals is rare and extra time does not count. 1.746 implies about 53% after margin; I estimate more. Risk: a total collapse by a bottom-of-table side, lineup unconfirmed.

Liverpool -0.5 (win in regulation) at about 1.58. Previews dated 3-4 November 2026 put Crystal Palace 18th with 7 points from 9, 21 goals conceded and 3 points from 4 home games, with striker Mateta suspended and Doucoure, Guessand, Lerma, Riad and Tomiyasu out. Liverpool sit 5th/6th with 10 points from 4 away games despite their own injury list (Frimpong, Gravenberch, Ekitike). A model preview rates Liverpool 57%, roughly break-even at this price, so this is a required participation pick; positive expected value not established. Risk: Liverpool's inconsistency and Palace's tight recent head-to-heads.

Over 2.5 goals at about 1.88 (53% implied). A preview updated 4 November 2026 has Fiorentina 16th with 23 goals conceded in 10 league games (2.3 per game) and their last ten matches averaging 3.7 total goals with both teams scoring in 80%. Juventus average 2.4 goals per match but are reportedly without Thuram, Locatelli, Yildiz and Conceicao, which cuts their attacking output and is the main uncertainty, alongside a historically tight head-to-head (17 of 42 meetings over 2.5). Near-even price against a leaky home defence; a modest lean, not a strong value claim.

Required participation pick; positive expected value not established. Aston Villa +0.5 covers a draw or away win. Sofascore’s page for 8 November 2026 lists Villa on 12 points versus United’s seven, supporting this cautious preference. The refreshed 1.769 quote improves on the packet’s 1.724; minimum 1.70 requires a 58.8% non-loss probability. Confidence is modest: recent-form reports conflict, lineups are unconfirmed, and United have home advantage. No reliable probability estimate establishes an edge.

Required participation pick; positive expected value not established. Bayern -1.25 at Mainz (14:30Z). A 3 Nov 2026 Docsports preview lists Bayern at 27 scored / 8 conceded through eight 2026-27 rounds (+19, roughly 2.4 goals per game margin) against Mainz at 17/17 with 10 points, and reports no injuries for either side. Pinnacle's 1.543 already implies about a 65% cover rate, so the price is fair rather than generous. Main uncertainty: a one-goal Bayern win settles as a half loss, Mainz drew 2-2 at home with Bayern in Dec 2025, and lineups are unconfirmed until an hour before kickoff.

Required participation pick; positive expected value not established. Stoke +0.5 covers a win or draw at 1.694, requiring about 59.0% success to break even. Sports Mole's 5 November preview for this 7 November match reports one defeat in Stoke's last 11 league games and four consecutive away wins. That supports the draw protection, though Portsmouth's six-match unbeaten run and three straight home wins are substantial counterarguments. Confidence is modest; 1.67 is my minimum acceptable price.