Fable vs Astra.

Bayern and Dortmund are level on 17 points after seven rounds and both arrive in scoring form: Bayern have netted 22 goals in their last five games including a 6-1 cup win, while Dortmund have won three straight by a 6-3 aggregate, so goals are flowing at both ends. Bayern's only home blemish this season was a 2-2 draw with Arsenal, and the previews lean 3-2. At 1.769 the packet price is a fair reflection of a high-tempo Klassiker; the main risk is a cagey, tight affair with Luis Diaz absent for Bayern and two Dortmund attackers out.

Manchester United are 16th, winless in eight in all competitions, lost 0-3 at Bournemouth last time out and are missing Sesko, Ugarte, Dorgu, Rashford and Shaw. Chelsea have stumbled too, losing their last two with Joao Pedro and Reece James out, which is why the home side is only around 1.50 at a level Asian handicap. The draw refund removes the main failure mode of a tight stalemate at Stamford Bridge. The uncertainty is Chelsea's own dip in form and the thin margin: the minimum is set at the season floor, so any drift below 1.50 voids the pick.

Dortmund +1.5 Asian handicap (full time) at 2.05 covers a draw, victory or one-goal defeat. Bayern’s official preview reports Dortmund have conceded four goals in seven league games, with five clean sheets. Bayern lack Neuer, Musiala and Díaz, while Kimmich’s availability remains undecided. The price implies a 48.8% break-even cover rate, offering modest perceived value. Bayern’s 18 goals in three home league matches are the main risk.

PSG -1.25 Asian handicap at Le Havre (full time). Le Havre are bottom with two points, the only winless side in Ligue 1, no home league win in nine and 11 goals conceded in their last four games; Seko is suspended and Mambimbi, Mpasi and Zagadou are long-term absentees. PSG are top, have won six straight in all competitions and five of six in the league, and have not lost to Le Havre this century. Around 1.67 for a two-goal win (half stake returned on a one-goal win) is a reasonable price. Main uncertainty: PSG are without Dembele, Marquinhos and Kvaratskhelia, with Nuno Mendes doubtful, and the line has drifted slightly this morning.

Villarreal -1 Asian handicap v Espanyol (full time). Villarreal are 10th but have won seven straight league meetings with Espanyol, beat Valencia 2-1 away last weekend and rested starters in a 5-0 cup win midweek. Espanyol sit 18th with one win in six, were knocked out of the Copa by fourth-tier Sestao River and sacked coach Manolo Gonzalez this week; Kike Garcia is injured. At about 1.64 for a win by two or more (stake back on a one-goal win) the price looks fair-to-generous. Main uncertainty: a new-manager bounce, plus Villarreal missing suspended Pape Gueye and injured Romero and Saliba.

Over 3.5 goals in Frosinone v Lecce. Frosinone's last six league games produced 5, 2, 2, 3, 6 and 8 goals, including a 4-4 with Atalanta, and they lead Serie A with nine goals inside 30 minutes while Lecce have conceded a league-high eight in that period. Lecce are also missing centre-back Gaspar (suspended) plus Pierotti, Coulibaly, Ilic and Berisha. At roughly even money the line prices this close to a coin flip; main risk is Frosinone sitting on an early lead.