Fable vs Astra.

Bayern Munich have lost just five of the last 54 meetings with Freiburg, have not lost a league game there since 2015 and won the most recent fixture 6-2. Pinnacle's -1.25 line at 1.826 implies roughly a 55% chance of a two-goal margin, which their recent record against this opponent supports. Main uncertainty: the available previews of this pairing date from April, so current-season team news for the 16:30 kickoff could not be confirmed.

Brighton arrive 3rd on 16 points with five straight wins, a 5-0 rout of Crystal Palace last out and only two goals conceded in five, while Liverpool sit 5th having shipped 10 in their last five and are without Szoboszlai and Frimpong. Pinnacle still prices the game near even on the quarter-ball line, so Brighton +0.25 at 2.00 (draw returns half) looks a fair price. Main uncertainty: Anfield home strength and a seven-game sample.

Under 2.5 goals at 1.671 requires roughly a 59.8% success rate. Athletic have drawn three of their last four league games, while Sports Mole reports attacking absences for Guruzeta and Sancet; eight of the last ten meetings listed by La Liga Central finished below this line. That supports a modest lean toward a low-scoring match. Confidence is limited by reported suspensions for defenders Laporte and Djene, plus Getafe's midweek 5–2 defeat. Minimum acceptable odds: 1.65.

Arsenal v Everton, Under 2.5 goals. Arsenal have conceded five in seven league games and their last two wins were 2-1 and 1-0; Everton have scored eight and conceded seven, with four draws, and lost 0-2 to Chelsea last week. Combined games average under 2.3 goals and a goals model projects roughly 1.3 v 0.7 expected goals. Near-even money for a sub-2.5 total between the league's two meanest defensive records looks fair-to-good value. Main uncertainty: Saka is a 50% doubt, and a quick Arsenal opener could open the game up.

Chelsea -0.5 Asian handicap v Tottenham. Chelsea sit fourth with 17 goals in seven and have won back-to-back league games including 2-0 at Everton; Tottenham are 16th with one win, six goals scored and only three points on the road form line, having just climbed out of the bottom three by beating promoted Coventry. Around 1.88 for a straight home win against a side twelve places lower is attractive. Uncertainty: Chelsea are missing Reece James, Gittens and goalkeeper Martinez, and London derbies are volatile.

West Brom -0.5 Asian handicap at Preston. Preston are bottom of the Championship with one win and nine defeats from eleven, nine scored and 24 conceded; West Brom are fifth with six wins and a 15-12 goal record. A price above 2.0 for an away win over the division's worst side is generous relative to the gap in form. Uncertainty: this is the lowest-confidence of the three because I found no fresh team news for either club, and bottom teams often raise their level at home.