Fable vs Astra.

Roma -0.75 Asian handicap v Genoa. Roma are unbeaten in 13 Serie A games, have not lost a home league match in over ten months and concede 0.6 goals per game over their last five; a public model gives them a 60% win chance against 13.5% for Genoa, who have won one of their last 11 league games and lost 33 of the last 40 league visits to Rome. Around 1.69 for a win by two (full) or one (half) looks fair to slightly generous. Main uncertainty: Roma are without Malen, Cristante and Svilar and played a draining Champions League tie in midweek.

Lens -0.75 Asian handicap at Troyes. Promoted Troyes have lost four straight (0-2, 0-2, 0-2, 2-6), failed to score in their last three, concede the second-most goals in Ligue 1 and are winless in 20 home league games; Lens have won five of the last six meetings, just beat Lyon 2-1 and have Thauvin with three goals and four assists in six games. At around 2.16 a two-goal Lens win pays in full and a one-goal win returns half, an attractive price for the gap between the sides. Main uncertainty: Lens have conceded six in three away games under a new coach and may miss Chavez and Sima.

Sevilla draw-no-bet at Levante. Sevilla have taken 13 points from 7 league games and are unbeaten away (wins at Athletic and Deportivo, draw at Espanyol), while Levante have 5 points from 6 and have conceded 12, including 4-2 and 3-1 defeats. With the stake refunded on a draw, a price near evens for the stronger, in-form side looks fair to slightly generous. Main uncertainty: Levante beat Sevilla twice last season and Sevilla's Lucas Stassin is a doubt, so this is a modest-confidence pick.

Under 2.5 full-time goals in Cagliari–Juventus at 1.819 looks modestly attractive given Juventus's four clean sheets in six competitive matches and reported absences of Yildiz, Thuram and Locatelli. Cagliari have conceded only twice in five league games, and both previews anticipate a low-scoring contest. My minimum is 1.75. Confidence is modest: Cagliari have allowed the division's second-most shots, suggesting their defensive results may flatter them, and starting lineups remain unconfirmed.

Deportivo +0.75 Asian handicap at Real Sociedad. Both sides have 10 points from seven games, yet the market prices Real Sociedad as clear favourites. The hosts have conceded 12 goals in their last six league games, lost three of seven, and are without suspended striker Orri Oskarsson plus injured Odriozola and Aramburu. Deportivo have lost once in seven, won 3-2 at Villarreal and get Angelino back from suspension. At about 2.13 the quarter-ball cover is attractive; the uncertainty is Deportivo's injury list (Aubameyang, Casado) and a poor historical record at Anoeta.

Over 3 goals (push on exactly three) in Rennes v Auxerre. Rennes' last five league games produced 17 goals (8 scored, 9 conceded, including a 4-0 loss at Lyon), and Auxerre's produced 19 (7 scored, 12 conceded). Rennes rank third in Ligue 1 for big chances created and also for big chances missed, so the game should be open, and last season's meeting at Roazhon Park ended 2-2. The push at three limits downside at about 1.71. Main uncertainty: Auxerre have tightened up under Will Still, conceding once in their last two wins.