Bet ledger

Coventry +0.75 Asian handicap at Tottenham. Spurs are bottom on three points, winless after six, with three league goals scored and nine conceded; Bentancur is suspended and Simons, Odobert, Savio and Bergvall are injured. Coventry arrive on back-to-back wins including 4-1 over Newcastle, with Awoniyi back. The +0.75 line pays in full on a draw or Coventry win and half-loses only if Spurs win by one, yet 2.35 still prices Spurs as clear favourites. Uncertainty: Spurs' squad quality and home advantage, and Coventry have conceded 11 in six.

Cagliari draw-no-bet (away 0 Asian handicap) at Monza. Cagliari are 5th on 13 points, six scored and three conceded with three clean sheets, have won every away league game this season and beat Monza 3-0 last time. Monza are 16th with four points, 15 conceded, no clean sheets, and lose Lucchesi to suspension. At 2.15 with the draw refunded, the price implies under 47% for a Cagliari win, which looks short. Main uncertainty: Cagliari's low scoring makes a stalemate plausible, and the price is a 06:30 snapshot.

Lazio +0.75 at 2.18 looks attractive given their unbeaten six-match league start and three away wins with only one goal conceded. Juventus have won just one of their last four league games; Spalletti also confirmed recovery concerns after Thursday's Vigo trip and Thuram's absence. This handicap wins if Lazio avoid defeat and loses only half on a one-goal defeat. Confidence is modest: Juventus retain home advantage and dangerous forwards, lineups remain unconfirmed, and the supplied price could have moved.

Arsenal -0.75 Asian handicap at Nottingham Forest. Arsenal sit second having won five of six league games and come off a comeback win at Leeds; Forest are 15th with one win in six, lost 3-1 to Crystal Palace last week and have Igor Jesus and Savona out with captain Gibbs-White and Milenkovic doubtful. The -0.75 line pays in full on a two-goal win and half on a one-goal win, and 1.72 looks fair for a side that has dominated this matchup recently. Main risk: Saliba's absence and Forest's home resilience under a new manager producing a narrow draw.

Como -0.75 Asian handicap at Fiorentina. Fiorentina are second-bottom with one league win all season, have lost five of their last six, sacked Fabio Grosso after four games and were beaten by Como in the Coppa Italia weeks ago, their third straight home loss to this opponent. Como have 11 points and were unbeaten in ten before a narrow loss at Frosinone. Sports Mole predicts 1-2 Como, which would return half at 2.39, with a two-goal win paying in full. Main uncertainty: Como played at Feyenoord midweek and Moise Kean is short of fitness, so this is the lowest-confidence pick.

Brighton -0.75 Asian handicap versus Crystal Palace. Brighton are third with 13 points, 18 scored and only 5 conceded, including home wins of 5-0 over Coventry and 3-0 over Arsenal, and have no flagged injuries. Palace are 12th with 7 points, 12 goals conceded, and have Mateta and Henderson only just returning from injury. A goals-based model gives Brighton roughly an 80% win chance, so -0.75 at 1.59 offers value if Brighton win by two. Main uncertainty: a tight one-goal win returns only half, and Palace's strong recent record in this derby.

Over 3 match goals in Bayer Leverkusen versus SC Freiburg. Freiburg lead the Bundesliga with 14 goals scored in five games and have gone over 2.5 goals in 10 of their last 11; Leverkusen have also scored 14 but conceded 8, with a 4-3 win at Mainz, a 2-2 draw with Augsburg and a 0-4 Europa League loss in their last five. Both teams scored in nine of the last ten head-to-heads, including 3-3, 5-1 and 3-2 scorelines. The 3-goal line pushes on exactly three, limiting downside at 1.71. Main risk: Leverkusen's injury list (Kofane, Terrier, Ben Seghir) blunting their attack.

Roma -0.75 Asian handicap v Genoa. Roma are unbeaten in 13 Serie A games, have not lost a home league match in over ten months and concede 0.6 goals per game over their last five; a public model gives them a 60% win chance against 13.5% for Genoa, who have won one of their last 11 league games and lost 33 of the last 40 league visits to Rome. Around 1.69 for a win by two (full) or one (half) looks fair to slightly generous. Main uncertainty: Roma are without Malen, Cristante and Svilar and played a draining Champions League tie in midweek.

Lens -0.75 Asian handicap at Troyes. Promoted Troyes have lost four straight (0-2, 0-2, 0-2, 2-6), failed to score in their last three, concede the second-most goals in Ligue 1 and are winless in 20 home league games; Lens have won five of the last six meetings, just beat Lyon 2-1 and have Thauvin with three goals and four assists in six games. At around 2.16 a two-goal Lens win pays in full and a one-goal win returns half, an attractive price for the gap between the sides. Main uncertainty: Lens have conceded six in three away games under a new coach and may miss Chavez and Sima.

Sevilla draw-no-bet at Levante. Sevilla have taken 13 points from 7 league games and are unbeaten away (wins at Athletic and Deportivo, draw at Espanyol), while Levante have 5 points from 6 and have conceded 12, including 4-2 and 3-1 defeats. With the stake refunded on a draw, a price near evens for the stronger, in-form side looks fair to slightly generous. Main uncertainty: Levante beat Sevilla twice last season and Sevilla's Lucas Stassin is a doubt, so this is a modest-confidence pick.

Under 2.5 full-time goals in Cagliari–Juventus at 1.819 looks modestly attractive given Juventus's four clean sheets in six competitive matches and reported absences of Yildiz, Thuram and Locatelli. Cagliari have conceded only twice in five league games, and both previews anticipate a low-scoring contest. My minimum is 1.75. Confidence is modest: Cagliari have allowed the division's second-most shots, suggesting their defensive results may flatter them, and starting lineups remain unconfirmed.

Deportivo +0.75 Asian handicap at Real Sociedad. Both sides have 10 points from seven games, yet the market prices Real Sociedad as clear favourites. The hosts have conceded 12 goals in their last six league games, lost three of seven, and are without suspended striker Orri Oskarsson plus injured Odriozola and Aramburu. Deportivo have lost once in seven, won 3-2 at Villarreal and get Angelino back from suspension. At about 2.13 the quarter-ball cover is attractive; the uncertainty is Deportivo's injury list (Aubameyang, Casado) and a poor historical record at Anoeta.

Over 3 goals (push on exactly three) in Rennes v Auxerre. Rennes' last five league games produced 17 goals (8 scored, 9 conceded, including a 4-0 loss at Lyon), and Auxerre's produced 19 (7 scored, 12 conceded). Rennes rank third in Ligue 1 for big chances created and also for big chances missed, so the game should be open, and last season's meeting at Roazhon Park ended 2-2. The push at three limits downside at about 1.71. Main uncertainty: Auxerre have tightened up under Will Still, conceding once in their last two wins.

Under 2.5 goals in Cagliari v Juventus. Cagliari have conceded just two goals in five Serie A games, the league's best defence, and last season's meeting here finished 1-0. Juventus arrive without Yildiz, Locatelli, Thuram and Boga, with Kolo Muani still goalless in Serie A after 11 shots. Juventus' league results this term (1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-3, 2-0) have mostly stayed under the line. Around 1.82 is a fair price for a cagey game; the main risk is Cagliari's thin-looking defensive record regressing after facing many shots, or a late goal flurry.

Arsenal -1 Asian handicap at about 1.69. Arsenal sit second after four straight league wins (Coventry, Villa, Chelsea, Sunderland) and beat Leeds 5-0 and 4-0 last season, with Gyokeres scoring in both. The line only needs a two-goal margin, and this price implies roughly 59%, which looks fair for a top side at home against a promoted team. Main uncertainty: Leeds are fifth, unbeaten in five and have conceded just three league goals, and Arsenal have doubts over Saliba, Havertz and Konsa.

Over 3 match goals at about 1.87 (half refund on exactly three). Chelsea's five league games have produced 22 goals, 10 scored and 12 conceded, and they have not held any league opponent below two goals this season; they also beat Leeds 6-3 in the cup. Bournemouth are winless but score (six in five) and the last two visits to Stamford Bridge both finished 2-2. Price implies about 53%, below what these rates suggest. Risk: Bournemouth's injury list and a possible more cautious Alonso setup after the 3-0 loss at Brentford.

Over 3.25 match goals at about 1.72 (half loss on exactly three). Inter's five Serie A games have averaged 4.6 goals (15 scored, 8 conceded), with four of five clearing 3.5, and they lead the league in shots on target while Parma have the fewest. Inter have scored at least twice in each of the last nine league meetings. Parma arrive under a new coach, Gilardino, after four straight away defeats. Main uncertainty: a new-manager defensive reset or an early Inter lead that slows the game could leave the total at two or three.

Stevenage -0.25 Asian handicap at 1.826 appeals against a Wigan side with five defeats and only five goals in seven league matches, as reported by Sports Mole. Stevenage's stronger defensive record and home advantage support this modest preference; a draw incurs only a half-loss. I require at least 1.75. The main uncertainties are Stevenage's inconsistent league form, midfield injuries and unconfirmed lineups; the supplied snapshot price could also move.

Lyon are second in Ligue 1, unbeaten in five league games, joint top scorers and own the division's best defensive record. Lens were 15th before this round, have lost three of their last four league matches and conceded two or more in five of six competitive games, and are missing Nawrocki, Sima, Titraoui and Abdulhamid. Pinnacle still makes Lens favourites, so Lyon draw-no-bet at 2.15 offers value with the draw refunded. Uncertainty: Lens's home record, the Thursday Europa League trip for Lyon, and Lyon's own absentees (Niakhate, Tagliafico).

Malaga sit bottom of LaLiga with three goals in seven games (0.43 per game) and have drawn three of their last six, while Espanyol lose Puado and Kike Garcia to injury with Jofre Carreras doubtful. Malaga's matches have averaged about 2.1 total goals and Sports Mole forecasts a tight 1-1. Pinnacle's 1.819 implies roughly 55% for under 2.5, which looks a touch short of fair given Malaga's blunt attack. Main risk: Espanyol's games have run closer to 2.9 goals and Roberto Fernandez has six goals in seven.

England have scored 15 goals in their last three games, including a 7-0 win over Croatia and a 2-0 win in Prague over this same Czechia side, who have lost four in a row and conceded seven across the window. Opta rates England around an 80% winner at Wembley, and a near-even price on a three-goal margin looks generous given that scoring rate. Main risk is heavy rotation in a dead-rubber feel and a Czechia consolation goal turning a 3-1 into a push.

North Macedonia have failed to score in any match in 2026, losing 0-3 to Switzerland, 0-2 to Slovenia and 0-2 to Scotland, so the total here is largely a bet on how many Switzerland score. The Swiss have managed 3, 3 and 2 in their three wins this window, which keeps a typical result at three goals or fewer, where Under 3.25 wins or at worst pushes on exactly three plus a Macedonian goal. Near-even money for that looks fair-to-good. Risk is a Swiss rout against a demoralised side.

Under 2 match goals at about 2.11 for Ukraine v Hungary at the neutral City Arena in Trnava. Hungary's three group games finished 0-1, 0-0 and 1-0, and Ukraine's were 1-0, 0-0 and 0-3, so five of six involved games had at most one goal. Both teams are depleted: Ukraine lack suspended Matviyenko and striker Sikan plus injured Mykolenko, while Hungary miss Kerkez and Volla. A push at exactly two goals cushions the price. Main risk: Ukraine's makeshift defence leaking as it did against Northern Ireland.

Italy -1 Asian handicap at about 1.62 against Turkiye in League A. Turkiye are bottom with zero points after 0-1 to France, 1-4 at home to Italy and 0-3 to Belgium, and now lose Arda Guler and Baris Alper Yilmaz to suspension on top of injured Calhanoglu and Yildiz, stripping most of their creativity. Italy drew 1-1 with France and beat this opponent by three goals last week. A one-goal Italy win refunds the stake. Main uncertainty is Italy's own lack of firepower without Raspadori.

Under 3 goals offers a refund at exactly three and looks attractive at 2.09. France's first three group games finished 1-0, 1-0 and 1-1; Belgium conceded only once across theirs. Reported absences of Mbappe, De Bruyne and Tielemans further support a restrained scoring outlook. The main risks are France's defensive absences, Belgium's recent attacking output and unconfirmed lineups; the short run of low scores is not conclusive.