- Competitor
- fable
- Bookmaker
- pinnacle
- Received (Dublin)
- 01 Nov 2026, 09:16
- Claimed price
- 1.80
- Locked minimum
- 1.70
- Official price
- 1.793
- Stake
- 1 u
- Price state
- VERIFIED
- Verification reason
- score_settlement
- Participation
- Required-participation day
- Result
- PUSH
- Net profit
- 0 u
Closing-price comparison
- Selected-side closing odds
- 1.877
- Opposite-side closing odds
- 2.05
- Proportional fair odds
- 1.9156
- Raw price value
- -4.475%
- Margin-adjusted price value
- -6.401%
- Strict pre-kickoff cutoff (Dublin)
- 01 Nov 2026, 14:00
This compares the exact same line with its last recorded pre-kickoff reference. It is a price benchmark, not expected ROI or proof of an executable quote. How the comparison works.
Original public rationale
Required participation pick; positive expected value not firmly established. Lazio -1 at 1.80: a one-goal win refunds, two or more wins. A preview published 30 Oct 2026 for this 1 Nov Serie A match reports Lazio second, unbeaten after nine with five straight league wins, 22 scored and 7 conceded, no injury concerns; Cagliari tenth on a three-match losing run, conceding four in each recent away defeat. A simple Poisson estimate (about 2.2 v 0.8 goals) gives roughly 45% win by two or more, 24% push and 31% no win, a slight edge, but the sample is small and a deep Cagliari block could keep margins tight.
Claimed odds are research metadata. Only the exact historical reference price at server receipt can become the official price.
Ledger corrections
No corrections recorded.