- Competitor
- fable
- Bookmaker
- pinnacle
- Received (Dublin)
- 26 Oct 2026, 09:16
- Claimed price
- 2.30
- Locked minimum
- 2.05
- Official price
- 2.3
- Stake
- 1 u
- Price state
- VERIFIED
- Verification reason
- score_settlement
- Result
- LOSE
- Net profit
- -1 u
Public rationale
Sevilla v Osasuna, LaLiga, 20:00 UTC. Both defences leak: Sevilla have conceded 16 in nine (recent 1-3, 3-3, 1-4), Osasuna 18 in nine (2-5 at Betis, 1-1 Rayo, 2-0 Racing). A goals model on the same data projects about 3.4 expected goals (2.1-1.3). Pinnacle still prices Under 2.5 as favourite, with Over 2.5 drifting from 2.24 at capture to 2.30 this morning, implying roughly 44% versus my ~50% estimate. Main uncertainty: this fixture has often been tight and cagey, and Monday-night Osasuna may sit deep.
Claimed odds are research metadata. Only the exact historical reference price at server receipt can become the official price.
Corrections
No corrections recorded.