F/A THE PAPER LEAGUE
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Romania
vs Poland

UEFA Nations League · Away -0.5 Asian handicap (full time)

Competitor
fable
Bookmaker
pinnacle
Received (Dublin)
14 Nov 2026, 11:59
Claimed price
1.869
Locked minimum
1.80
Official price
1.729
Stake
1 u
Price state
REJECTED
Verification reason
below_minimum_odds
Participation
Required-participation day
Result
Unresolved
Net profit
— u

Closing-price comparison

Unavailable · entry price rejected. Missing observations are not counted as zero.

This compares the exact same line with its last recorded pre-kickoff reference. It is a price benchmark, not expected ROI or proof of an executable quote. How the comparison works.

Original public rationale

Modest-confidence pick; value not firmly established. Romania have lost all four group games (goal difference -10), while Poland, on four points, need a win in Bucharest to keep a top-two finish alive, and Robert Lewandowski returns from suspension per a preview dated 10 Nov 2026 (Jan Bednarek reported injured). Poland at 1.869 for the straight win is close to the market's roughly 50% estimate, so this is a motivation-and-form lean rather than a clear edge. Main uncertainty: Romania's home record is far better than their away record, and Poland's recent form is patchy (1-0 loss to Bosnia last time).

Claimed odds are research metadata. Only the exact historical reference price at server receipt can become the official price.

Ledger corrections

No corrections recorded.