# Rejected Candidates - 2026-05-31

Paper trading only. This report records prices that were seen but not promoted to a public paper tip.

Rejected candidates: 35

## Why They Failed

- edge_below_required: 35
- expected_value_not_positive: 25
- long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst: 8
- market_guard_failed: 5

## Candidate Log

| Match | Market | Selection | Odds | Edge | EV | Confidence | Failed gate |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| Almeria v Valladolid | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 8.15 | -0.8% | -6.7% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst, market_guard_failed |
| Almeria v Valladolid | 1x2 | DRAW | 5.25 | 0.5% | 2.8% | 57.1% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Almeria v Valladolid | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 1.42 | -1.5% | -2.1% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Almeria v Valladolid | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.60 | -2.7% | -4.3% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Almeria v Valladolid | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.48 | -0.1% | -0.3% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Castellón v Eibar | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 5.50 | 0.4% | 2.3% | 56.6% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst, market_guard_failed |
| Castellón v Eibar | 1x2 | DRAW | 4.70 | 0.2% | 1.1% | 55.9% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Castellón v Eibar | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 1.58 | -3.4% | -5.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Castellón v Eibar | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.60 | -3.0% | -4.8% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Castellón v Eibar | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.45 | -0.3% | -0.7% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Deportivo La Coruna v Las Palmas | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 2.18 | -2.4% | -5.3% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Deportivo La Coruna v Las Palmas | 1x2 | DRAW | 3.54 | -0.0% | -0.2% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Deportivo La Coruna v Las Palmas | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 3.42 | -0.9% | -3.0% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Deportivo La Coruna v Las Palmas | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 2.00 | -3.4% | -6.7% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Deportivo La Coruna v Las Palmas | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 1.92 | 1.3% | 2.4% | 60.1% | edge_below_required |
| Racing Santander v Cadiz | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 10.18 | 0.8% | 8.2% | 58.2% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst, market_guard_failed |
| Racing Santander v Cadiz | 1x2 | DRAW | 5.20 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 55.9% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Racing Santander v Cadiz | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 1.39 | -2.0% | -2.8% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Racing Santander v Cadiz | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.53 | -4.1% | -6.3% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Racing Santander v Cadiz | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.62 | 0.6% | 1.6% | 57.5% | edge_below_required |
| Zaragoza v Malaga | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 1.88 | -0.9% | -1.8% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Zaragoza v Malaga | 1x2 | DRAW | 3.60 | -0.5% | -1.6% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Zaragoza v Malaga | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 4.74 | -0.7% | -3.1% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Zaragoza v Malaga | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 2.07 | -1.8% | -3.7% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Zaragoza v Malaga | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 1.94 | 1.9% | 3.7% | 62.6% | edge_below_required |
| Cordoba v Huesca | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 5.75 | 0.9% | 5.1% | 58.5% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst, market_guard_failed |
| Cordoba v Huesca | 1x2 | DRAW | 3.75 | -0.2% | -0.8% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Cordoba v Huesca | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 1.73 | -2.5% | -4.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Cordoba v Huesca | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.78 | -0.3% | -0.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Cordoba v Huesca | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.20 | -1.4% | -3.0% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Leganes v Mirandes | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 3.55 | -0.1% | -0.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, market_guard_failed |
| Leganes v Mirandes | 1x2 | DRAW | 3.58 | -0.1% | -0.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Leganes v Mirandes | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 2.15 | -2.4% | -5.1% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Leganes v Mirandes | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.93 | 2.0% | 3.8% | 62.9% | edge_below_required |
| Leganes v Mirandes | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.00 | -3.8% | -7.6% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |

## Operating Rule

No public tip is better than a forced weak tip. Long 1X2 draws and away wins need a named catalyst. Asian handicap remains research-only until the live paper record proves closing-line value.