# Rejected Candidates - 2026-05-30

Paper trading only. This report records prices that were seen but not promoted to a public paper tip.

Rejected candidates: 15

## Why They Failed

- edge_below_required: 15
- expected_value_not_positive: 12

## Candidate Log

| Match | Market | Selection | Odds | Edge | EV | Confidence | Failed gate |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| AD Ceuta FC v Albacete | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 3.10 | -1.3% | -4.1% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| AD Ceuta FC v Albacete | 1x2 | DRAW | 3.40 | -0.4% | -1.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| AD Ceuta FC v Albacete | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 2.46 | -0.6% | -1.5% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| AD Ceuta FC v Albacete | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.80 | -0.4% | -0.7% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| AD Ceuta FC v Albacete | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.14 | -1.9% | -4.0% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Real Sociedad II v Cultural Leonesa | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 3.24 | -1.1% | -3.7% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Real Sociedad II v Cultural Leonesa | 1x2 | DRAW | 3.40 | -0.5% | -1.8% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Real Sociedad II v Cultural Leonesa | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 2.38 | -0.6% | -1.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Real Sociedad II v Cultural Leonesa | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.83 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.0% | edge_below_required |
| Real Sociedad II v Cultural Leonesa | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.11 | -2.0% | -4.3% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Granada CF v Sporting Gijon | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 2.99 | -1.8% | -5.3% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Granada CF v Sporting Gijon | 1x2 | DRAW | 3.40 | -0.1% | -0.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Granada CF v Sporting Gijon | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 2.57 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 55.4% | edge_below_required |
| Granada CF v Sporting Gijon | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.93 | 1.4% | 2.6% | 60.5% | edge_below_required |
| Granada CF v Sporting Gijon | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.00 | -3.2% | -6.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |

## Operating Rule

No public tip is better than a forced weak tip. Long 1X2 draws and away wins need a named catalyst. Asian handicap remains research-only until the live paper record proves closing-line value.