# Rejected Candidates - 2026-05-24

Paper trading only. This report records prices that were seen but not promoted to a public paper tip.

Rejected candidates: 100

## Why They Failed

- edge_below_required: 100
- expected_value_not_positive: 63
- long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst: 26
- market_guard_failed: 9

## Candidate Log

| Match | Market | Selection | Odds | Edge | EV | Confidence | Failed gate |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| Parma v Sassuolo | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 2.70 | -0.6% | -1.6% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Parma v Sassuolo | 1x2 | DRAW | 3.48 | -0.8% | -2.9% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Parma v Sassuolo | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 2.80 | -0.1% | -0.2% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Parma v Sassuolo | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.97 | 2.0% | 3.9% | 62.9% | edge_below_required |
| Parma v Sassuolo | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 1.97 | -3.5% | -6.9% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Brighton v Manchester United | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 3.98 | -1.5% | -6.0% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst, market_guard_failed |
| Brighton v Manchester United | 1x2 | DRAW | 4.35 | -0.5% | -2.1% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Brighton v Manchester United | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 1.88 | 0.7% | 1.3% | 57.7% | edge_below_required |
| Brighton v Manchester United | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.52 | -3.8% | -5.8% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Brighton v Manchester United | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.75 | 1.7% | 4.7% | 61.8% | edge_below_required |
| Burnley v Wolves | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 3.00 | -1.6% | -4.9% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Burnley v Wolves | 1x2 | DRAW | 3.72 | 0.5% | 1.9% | 57.1% | edge_below_required |
| Burnley v Wolves | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 2.41 | -0.6% | -1.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Burnley v Wolves | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.74 | -0.8% | -1.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Burnley v Wolves | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.27 | -0.7% | -1.6% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Crystal Palace v Arsenal | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 1.91 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 56.6% | edge_below_required |
| Crystal Palace v Arsenal | 1x2 | DRAW | 4.02 | -0.9% | -3.5% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Crystal Palace v Arsenal | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 4.20 | -0.6% | -2.3% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Crystal Palace v Arsenal | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.75 | -0.2% | -0.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Crystal Palace v Arsenal | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.26 | -1.2% | -2.6% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Fulham v Newcastle | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 2.55 | -1.4% | -3.7% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Fulham v Newcastle | 1x2 | DRAW | 3.82 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Fulham v Newcastle | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 2.85 | 1.0% | 2.7% | 58.8% | edge_below_required |
| Fulham v Newcastle | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.64 | -2.3% | -3.8% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Fulham v Newcastle | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.46 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 57.7% | edge_below_required |
| Liverpool v Brentford | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 4.02 | 0.5% | 2.0% | 57.0% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst, market_guard_failed |
| Liverpool v Brentford | 1x2 | DRAW | 4.33 | -0.6% | -2.5% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Liverpool v Brentford | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 1.90 | -0.5% | -1.0% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Liverpool v Brentford | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.50 | -4.5% | -6.8% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Liverpool v Brentford | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.75 | 1.5% | 4.1% | 61.0% | edge_below_required |
| Manchester City v Aston Villa | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 9.00 | -0.2% | -1.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst, market_guard_failed |
| Manchester City v Aston Villa | 1x2 | DRAW | 6.50 | -0.5% | -3.0% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Manchester City v Aston Villa | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 1.38 | 1.7% | 2.3% | 61.6% | edge_below_required |
| Manchester City v Aston Villa | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.34 | -2.4% | -3.2% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Manchester City v Aston Villa | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 3.75 | 1.1% | 4.2% | 59.5% | edge_below_required |
| Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 2.05 | -1.5% | -3.1% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth | 1x2 | DRAW | 4.00 | -0.4% | -1.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 3.66 | 0.7% | 2.7% | 58.0% | edge_below_required |
| Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.59 | -3.0% | -4.8% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.57 | 1.2% | 3.2% | 59.9% | edge_below_required |
| Sunderland v Chelsea | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 2.12 | -2.1% | -4.5% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Sunderland v Chelsea | 1x2 | DRAW | 3.80 | 0.7% | 2.5% | 57.7% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Sunderland v Chelsea | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 3.58 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 55.1% | edge_below_required |
| Sunderland v Chelsea | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.83 | 0.8% | 1.5% | 58.3% | edge_below_required |
| Sunderland v Chelsea | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.14 | -2.2% | -4.7% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Tottenham v Everton | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 4.36 | -1.1% | -4.6% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst, market_guard_failed |
| Tottenham v Everton | 1x2 | DRAW | 3.75 | -0.0% | -0.1% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Tottenham v Everton | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 1.94 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Tottenham v Everton | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.86 | 1.2% | 2.2% | 59.7% | edge_below_required |
| Tottenham v Everton | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.12 | -2.1% | -4.5% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| West Ham v Leeds | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 4.66 | -0.2% | -0.8% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst, market_guard_failed |
| West Ham v Leeds | 1x2 | DRAW | 4.26 | -0.3% | -1.3% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| West Ham v Leeds | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 1.80 | -0.0% | -0.0% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| West Ham v Leeds | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.70 | -1.0% | -1.6% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| West Ham v Leeds | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.34 | -0.6% | -1.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Napoli v Udinese | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 7.00 | -0.7% | -4.6% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst, market_guard_failed |
| Napoli v Udinese | 1x2 | DRAW | 4.50 | 0.7% | 2.9% | 57.6% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Napoli v Udinese | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 1.54 | -1.4% | -2.2% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Napoli v Udinese | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.97 | 2.8% | 5.5% | 66.2% | edge_below_required |
| Napoli v Udinese | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.01 | -3.3% | -6.7% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Huesca v Castellón | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 1.70 | -2.2% | -3.7% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Huesca v Castellón | 1x2 | DRAW | 4.34 | -0.1% | -0.3% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Huesca v Castellón | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 5.00 | 0.4% | 2.0% | 56.6% | edge_below_required |
| Huesca v Castellón | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.71 | -1.2% | -2.1% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Huesca v Castellón | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.33 | -0.2% | -0.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Las Palmas v Zaragoza | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 9.00 | 0.8% | 7.3% | 58.2% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst, market_guard_failed |
| Las Palmas v Zaragoza | 1x2 | DRAW | 4.74 | 0.6% | 2.9% | 57.4% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Las Palmas v Zaragoza | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 1.42 | -4.0% | -5.7% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Las Palmas v Zaragoza | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.82 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 56.1% | edge_below_required |
| Las Palmas v Zaragoza | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.14 | -2.0% | -4.2% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| AC Milan v Cagliari | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 14.20 | 1.4% | 19.5% | 60.5% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst, market_guard_failed |
| AC Milan v Cagliari | 1x2 | DRAW | 6.00 | 1.1% | 6.8% | 59.5% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| AC Milan v Cagliari | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 1.31 | -2.5% | -3.3% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| AC Milan v Cagliari | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.74 | -0.3% | -0.6% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| AC Milan v Cagliari | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.31 | -0.4% | -1.0% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Cremonese v Como | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 1.64 | -1.3% | -2.2% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Cremonese v Como | 1x2 | DRAW | 4.43 | -0.4% | -1.7% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Cremonese v Como | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 5.70 | 0.6% | 3.6% | 57.5% | edge_below_required |
| Cremonese v Como | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.75 | -0.3% | -0.6% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Cremonese v Como | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.25 | -1.3% | -2.8% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Hellas Verona v AS Roma | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 1.33 | -3.0% | -3.9% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Hellas Verona v AS Roma | 1x2 | DRAW | 5.69 | 0.7% | 3.9% | 57.8% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Hellas Verona v AS Roma | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 11.50 | 0.8% | 9.2% | 58.2% | edge_below_required |
| Hellas Verona v AS Roma | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.84 | 0.6% | 1.1% | 57.4% | edge_below_required |
| Hellas Verona v AS Roma | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.12 | -2.1% | -4.5% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Lecce v Genoa | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 5.25 | -0.5% | -2.6% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst, market_guard_failed |
| Lecce v Genoa | 1x2 | DRAW | 3.72 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 55.5% | edge_below_required |
| Lecce v Genoa | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 1.80 | -1.1% | -2.0% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Lecce v Genoa | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 2.42 | 0.6% | 1.5% | 57.5% | edge_below_required |
| Lecce v Genoa | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 1.66 | -2.2% | -3.6% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Torino v Juventus | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 1.49 | -2.3% | -3.4% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Torino v Juventus | 1x2 | DRAW | 4.78 | 0.8% | 4.0% | 58.3% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Torino v Juventus | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 7.60 | 0.2% | 1.8% | 55.9% | edge_below_required |
| Torino v Juventus | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.83 | 0.8% | 1.4% | 58.0% | edge_below_required |
| Torino v Juventus | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.14 | -2.1% | -4.6% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Villarreal v Atletico Madrid | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 2.75 | -0.3% | -0.7% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Villarreal v Atletico Madrid | 1x2 | DRAW | 3.90 | 0.4% | 1.4% | 56.4% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Villarreal v Atletico Madrid | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 2.57 | -1.0% | -2.6% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Villarreal v Atletico Madrid | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.52 | -4.8% | -7.3% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Villarreal v Atletico Madrid | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.70 | 2.0% | 5.3% | 62.8% | edge_below_required |

## Operating Rule

No public tip is better than a forced weak tip. Long 1X2 draws and away wins need a named catalyst. Asian handicap remains research-only until the live paper record proves closing-line value.