# Rejected Candidates - 2026-05-19

Paper trading only. This report records prices that were seen but not promoted to a public paper tip.

Rejected candidates: 10

## Why They Failed

- edge_below_required: 10
- expected_value_not_positive: 5
- long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst: 2
- market_guard_failed: 1

## Candidate Log

| Match | Market | Selection | Odds | Edge | EV | Confidence | Failed gate |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| Bournemouth v Manchester City | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 1.74 | 1.5% | 2.6% | 61.1% | edge_below_required |
| Bournemouth v Manchester City | 1x2 | DRAW | 4.50 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 56.2% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Bournemouth v Manchester City | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 5.23 | -0.6% | -3.3% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Bournemouth v Manchester City | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.56 | -3.5% | -5.5% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Bournemouth v Manchester City | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.62 | 1.2% | 3.2% | 60.0% | edge_below_required |
| Chelsea v Tottenham | 1x2 | AWAY_WIN | 3.65 | -0.6% | -2.1% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive, market_guard_failed |
| Chelsea v Tottenham | 1x2 | DRAW | 3.75 | 2.6% | 9.6% | 65.3% | edge_below_required, long_1x2_requires_named_catalyst |
| Chelsea v Tottenham | 1x2 | HOME_WIN | 2.18 | -1.9% | -4.2% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |
| Chelsea v Tottenham | over_under_2_5 | OVER | 1.97 | 3.3% | 6.6% | 68.4% | edge_below_required |
| Chelsea v Tottenham | over_under_2_5 | UNDER | 2.09 | -2.0% | -4.1% | 55.0% | edge_below_required, expected_value_not_positive |

## Operating Rule

No public tip is better than a forced weak tip. Long 1X2 draws and away wins need a named catalyst. Asian handicap remains research-only until the live paper record proves closing-line value.